The Black Swan

View other editions of The Black Swan.
View books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Partial plagiarism of his central thesis? - Rated
Reading these reviews leads me immediately to the realisation that this work may possibly be little better than plagiarism. Siméon-Denis Poisson first examined the statistical modelling of low-probability events in 1838, within a much wider corpus of scientific research in pure and applied natural and social sciences. One immediate conclusion is that the probability of low-odds events occurring (where there is no impedement to frequent possible events) is much higher than normal binomial probability suggests. As this is the heart of Taleb's thesis, he's at best reinvented the wheel.
On the basis of his introduction, examining the work of Umberto Eco, I suspect he falls into a trap of his own pretentiousness, insofar as Professor Eco sometimes espouses hermetic doctrines in his fictional works established long before our days by the Vatican and other similar bodies. His is not the work of a freelance research student, but of an acolyte, affirmed by his other publications of a non-fictional character, displaying the formation of his mentation. It is not therefore appropriate to suggest that there is much of a serendipitous nature about his well-researched, yet doctrinally conformist, theses, and that disables Taleb's first shuffle.
I therefore conclude that as both foundations to his thesis, namely his starting point and the incremental progression thenceforward, appear to be weak, this may not arrive at any logically coherent conclusions at all. Those of a religious disposition might choose to develop that objection further, insofar as the inexplicable Poisson anomaly has sometimes been argued as a scientifically-rigourous case for a non-bounded ontological eidos (or in plain language, "there are more things in heaven and earth, Nicholas, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."), but each to his own: at the very least, he is not doing fresh research by a very long way, as this was very old hat in our market modelling in the 1980s.

Scintillating - Rated
One of the most intelligent pieces of writing I have come across in my reading career.

It opens up some many new ways of viewing life and its events. Delivered with a delightful touch of arrogance, sudden humour, and iconoclastic precision - the book unearths a paradigm which is so overarchingly pervasive yet consciously ignored by people.

The author's tribute to, and coverage of Benoit Mandelbrot, along with the pooh-poohing of the 'normal' model of reality is a salient highlight, and should not be missed by any serious empiricist.

The book is a black swan.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition... - Rated
This book is a black swan because against all the odds it got published. It has one idea swollen unappealingly to almost 400 pages. It is full of stereotypes, rich in "imaginative" anecdotes and insufferably pompous. If you want to read about chance and probability then try Ian Stewart; for Chance and Necessity read Jacques Monod (1972).

most insightful book I've read in a long time - Rated
Yes, I understand the criticism that Mr Taleb is full of himself - undoubtedly it shows throughout the book.
However, the amount of insights he provides and the many different angles in which he looks at the problem hammers the point through our hard-wired brains, and in my case, provided a fundamental change to the way I think and approach problems.
Definitely, a must read book.

The Emperor has no clothes - Rated
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
A highly disappointing text from an erudite and capable author. The book is fallacious, misleading and mischievous. The abuse of simple statistical distributions alone warrants not taking it seriously. It is oversold by the blurb and does not do what it says on the cover. Extremely disappointing.